How much will you bid on this cardboard box?

I have a cardboard box here that I’m putting up for bid in a pretend auction.  It’s a real box.  It’s about 2 feet long, 1 foot wide and 1 foot deep.  I’m not going to tell you what it’s worth, but I’m calling it the “Celebrity box.”  It may not even be a good box.  The contents could be worth nothing or $15 million US dollars, or anything in between.  It could have diamonds or air.  You would have to pay for shipping to find out what’s inside.

If it sounds crazy, stupid or foolish to bid anything for it, then you’re right!  Your brain must be working.  You should NOT bid real money for anything of completely uncertain value, even on the off-chance that it could contain something of value.

Now what if you see other people bidding $10 million to $20 million on the box?  Does that make bidding on the box a more reasonable option?  What if I told you that I invented a new currency called BSGcoin that was worth the same as the US dollar, but could only be for bidding on this box.  What if I gave you $50 million of BSGcoin for bidding?  You might consider bidding on it because you’re using other peoples money and there’s no apparent consequences if you discovered that the box was empty.   But does that make the choice to bid on it to be a good business decision.  Of course, not.

Yet this is exactly what many students do when they play the BSG game for the first time.  They bid on celebrities without having the slightest clue about what a celebrity may be worth to them.  Don’t be them.  Don’t do this.  Don’t bid on things unless you have a good way to know what they’re worth.